M23 Rebels’ Territorial Expansion in Eastern Congo Triggers Regional Crisis and Humanitarian Emergency

Recent Territorial Gains and Strategic Advances

In a significant escalation of the conflict, the M23 rebel group has made major advances in early 2025, capturing both Goma and Bukavu, the provincial capitals of North Kivu and South Kivu provinces. Goma, a regional hub with over 2 million people, sits on DR Congo’s border with Rwanda, making it a crucial strategic location.

The rebels have recently entered Bukavu, the second-largest city in eastern DR Congo, after capturing the last significant military barrier – the airport. This city, home to more than one million people, represents another strategic victory for the group.

Humanitarian Impact and Casualties

The conflict has resulted in at least 773 deaths in Goma and its vicinity in just one week, with more than 2,880 people injured. The capture of Goma has brought humanitarian operations to “a standstill, cutting off a vital lifeline for aid delivery” across eastern DRC, with fears of even greater displacement as violence escalates toward Bukavu.

International Response and Regional Tensions

United Nations chief Antonio Guterres has called for avoiding regional escalation “at all costs” and preserving DRC’s territorial integrity. The UK Foreign Office has condemned the actions as a violation of DRC’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of all Rwandan Defence Force from Congolese territory.

Economic Implications and Resource Control

The UN reports that between April and December 2024, the M23 rebel group generated $800 million in revenue from coltan mining, with illegal exports flowing through Rwanda. The region, while desperately poor, is rich in minerals used in electronics and mobile phones.

Future Prospects and Regional Stability

The fall of these major cities marks the largest escalation in the Kivu conflict since M23’s brief occupation of Goma in 2012, with the United Nations warning that the offensive could lead to a larger regional war. While Congolese president Félix Tshisekedi has called for national mobilization and ruled out negotiations with M23, the rebel coalition’s leader, Corneille Nangaa, has declared their intention to advance all the way to the national capital Kinshasa.