Population of Iran: demographics, distribution and projections

Introduction — Why the population of Iran matters

The population of Iran shapes the country’s economy, politics and social services. Recent data and analyses highlight shifts in age structure, religious composition and migration that are important for policymakers, businesses and citizens. Estimates for Iran’s current population vary across sources, and long‑term United Nations projections point to divergent futures by 2100.

Main body

Current size and distribution

Estimates of Iran’s present population vary in the sources provided: some summaries state the population is over 78 million, while an explainer notes a figure of about 92 million and ranks Iran as the 17th‑largest country by population and land area. Iran covers roughly 1.65 million square kilometres and is the second‑largest country in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia. Most people live in the western half of the country, where mountainous terrain gives way to fertile valleys and river basins. Mashhad, in the north‑east, is identified as Iran’s second‑largest city with about 3.4 million residents.

Demographic profile

The sex ratio is slightly male‑skewed at about 1.03 men per woman. Median ages are in the mid‑30s: roughly 35.29 years for males and 35.74 years for females, indicating a mature but not yet elderly population. Nearly 60% of Iran’s population is under the age of 39, according to United Nations statistics, which has implications for labour markets, education and housing demand.

Religion and migration

Religious composition is relatively homogenous: about 89% of the population identify as Shi’a Muslim, around 10% as Sunni Muslim, and the remaining 1% include Christians, Zoroastrians, Baha’is and Jews. Iran hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations, with more than one million refugees—predominantly from Iraq and Afghanistan—adding to demographic and social service considerations.

Historical context and projections

Historically, Iran’s population was under 10 million from 1880 to 1920 before rising rapidly through the 20th century. The UN World Population Prospects (2024 revision) provides long‑range projections with a wide range of outcomes: for example, late‑21st century estimates differ by projection variant, from roughly 70–71 million under a ‘no change’ variant to over 100 million under a high‑momentum scenario by 2100.

Conclusion — What this means for readers

Variations in current population estimates and divergent UN projection scenarios underline uncertainty about Iran’s demographic future. Near‑term policy challenges include meeting the needs of a predominantly working‑age population and integrating over a million refugees. Over the long term, population trajectories will influence economic planning, urban development and social services—making close monitoring and adaptive policy important.