Kosovo in 2025: Between Military Transformation and Regional Tensions with Serbia

Current Situation and Regional Impact

Kosovo is currently undergoing a significant military transformation, with its Security Forces evolving into a formal professional military. This transition is scheduled for completion by 2028. However, this development has faced strong opposition from Serbia.

Ongoing Tensions and Diplomatic Efforts

The most critical point of conflict remains the status of four northern Kosovo municipalities with a Serb majority population, where violent protests have occurred repeatedly since 2021. Despite EU-facilitated dialogue efforts, there has been no meaningful progress in normalising relations between Belgrade and Pristina. Peter Sørensen was appointed as the new EU Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue.

Recent Developments

While Kosovo needs to accelerate its EU-related reforms, the country has made notable progress in electoral reforms, economic resilience, and fundamental rights protection. However, significant challenges persist in areas such as judicial reforms, media freedom, and public administration efficiency.

International Involvement

NATO considers preserving Kosovo’s independence essential to its European legitimacy. There are concerns that if NATO interventions can be undone, other alliance members might question their reliance on the organization. Russia is actively seeking opportunities to create discord within NATO between the United States and European members, with the Balkans being particularly attractive for such efforts due to the region’s history of conflicts and Serbia’s traditional friendship with Russia.

Future Prospects

According to EU rapporteur Riho Terras, Kosovo’s integration process requires new momentum and a fresh chapter in talks between Pristina and Belgrade. Notably, all major parties in Kosovo strongly support EU integration, with the country’s future being viewed as part of the European family.