Scottish Budget 2026-27: Government Faces Tough Choices as Election Looms

Introduction: A Critical Budget Before the May Election

The Scottish Budget 2026 to 2027 will be published on 13 January 2026, marking a pivotal moment for Scotland’s public finances. Finance Secretary Shona Robison will unveil the Scottish Government’s budget for 2026/27 – this will be the last time she presents a budget before she leaves frontline politics in May. The announcement comes at a crucial juncture, with the Budget published less than four months before the 2026 Scottish Parliament election on May 7.

Financial Pressures and New Resources

The Scottish government will get an extra £750m in 2026-27 as a result of spending decisions by the UK government and improved tax and social security forecasts, according to the Fraser of Allander Institute. However, challenges remain significant. Finance Secretary Shona Robison warned she had to make “tough” decisions to balance the tax and spending plans. The government faces particular difficulty with infrastructure investment, as the think tank said Robison was facing a £1bn shortfall in the capital budget, which is used for long-term infrastructure projects, as well as services such as maintaining roads.

Government Priorities and Policy Focus

SNP ministers will focus on alleviating the cost-of-living crisis, eradicating child poverty and boosting the NHS when their final Budget before May’s Holyrood election is published. Extra funding will be available to Ms Robison to tackle child poverty after the UK government’s U-turn to scrap the two-child benefit cap limit, which the Scottish Government had already vowed to do itself. The NHS remains the biggest spending priority, with continued pressure to reduce waiting lists and improve healthcare access across Scotland.

Political Landscape and Parliamentary Passage

With the drama of whether the Budget will pass taken away after Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar confirmed his party would not vote down the spending plans, attention now turns to what could be included in the proposals. This provides the SNP government with greater certainty, though MSPs have only two months to debate the Budget Bill and undertake negotiations. A final vote on the Budget bill is expected to be held in late February.

Conclusion: Significance for Scotland’s Future

The 2026-27 Scottish Budget represents more than routine fiscal planning—it serves as a political statement ahead of the May election and will shape public services delivery for the coming year. With additional funding providing some relief but capital constraints limiting infrastructure ambitions, the government must balance immediate public service needs against longer-term investment requirements. The budget’s success in addressing priorities such as NHS waiting times, child poverty, and the cost-of-living crisis will likely influence voter sentiment ahead of the crucial Holyrood election.